2025 will be the year of Apple Intelligence (again)

As a sports fan, I’m surrounded by gambling ads these days. The sports media is full of pundits who happily claim they know who will win and who will lose, but of course, if they real With all the answers, they will become rich and will not cheat on their predictions.

What I’m trying to say is, no one knows anything. While I’ve been covering Apple since time immemorial (well, the 1990s) and have been making predictions in this space for a decade, let’s just say no one is perfect.

Still, it’s interesting to think about the blank canvas 2025 provides us. Here are my predictions for next year. As always, no bets.

simple bet

Regarding Apple in 2025, the simplest prediction is: Just as 2024 is the year of Apple’s intelligence, 2025 will also be the year of Apple’s intelligence. Apple’s urgent project to add artificial intelligence models to every aspect of its software received a brand name in 2024, but the work is far from over.

Apple will fulfill unfulfilled promises at WWDC 2024 in the first half of 2024, and then make promises for a new year in June. It’s the closest to a cold mortal prediction anyone can make. It will take Apple several years to let its guard down when it comes to Apple Intelligence, as it is at least a few years behind some of its competitors.

It’s not much of a prediction to say that Apple’s smart phones will continue to have the same mix of useful and useless features they’ve had so far. I’m not sure anyone in the tech industry really knows which AI features will be game-changers and which will be useless. So now, everyone is just throwing spaghetti against the wall. Apple had several pots of pasta still cooking.

However, after all this, Siri still won’t be where it should be by the end of 2025.

software story

You guessed it, all of Apple’s 2025 operating system updates will be focused on: Apple Intelligence. The company needs to deliver the functionality it promises, leverage device indexing of its personal information, and use app intents to control other apps. My guess is that these versions will be extremely limited in scope and functionality. But they’re something worth building, and I’d be surprised if there isn’t a big announcement next June extending Apple Intelligence’s ability to understand your profile and control your apps.

Apple has been making noises about supporting third-party AI tools other than ChatGPT since June, but has yet to make any announcements. By 2025, I expect the company to have signed at least one partner outside of OpenAI, and possibly more. Support for other third-party chatbot providers may debut with early versions of iOS 19 and macOS 16 in the fall.

Wearables, Home and Accessories

This year, none of Apple’s ancillary products have received Apple Intelligence certification, but we may see some signs of it for the first time in 2025. VisionOS 3 may add support for Apple Intelligence, and I think it’s very likely that the new HomePod Mini will explicitly support Apple Intelligence.

The truly surprising debut this year will be a new home product, which (as Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman reports) will be a small iPad-like display running a custom Apple-built operating system designed to Shown for home controllers and environments. I like that it’s modular, with an optional speaker base or a stand that can be hung on the wall. Apparently, it also brings Apple Intelligence to the party. What will it be called? I don’t know, but I’ll write 20 quatloos on… the “new HomePod.” (Sorry, old HomePod!)

Those looking for extra hardware will be disappointed. There will be no new VisionOS devices in 2025, nor will Apple respond to Meta’s Ray-Ban glasses (called AirPods specs), although there are should be.

Other hardware

It’s a good thing Apple Intelligence is going all-in, because it’s going to be a pretty quiet year for Apple’s core hardware lineup.

Yes, we’re getting an M4 MacBook Air in the spring, but aside from an improved webcam, it’s unlikely to be anything significantly different. We may also see updates to the M4 drivers for the Mac Pro and Mac Studio, although I don’t expect them to be particularly exciting updates. Likewise, the M5 MacBook Pro will debut in the fall because that’s what’s needed, but it’s unlikely they’ll offer improvements beyond the die itself for this year’s model.

Likewise, the iPad seems ready for a dull year after a year full of excitement. There may be a new lower-end model, but that will hardly change anything.

On the iPhone, two of Apple’s three phones will also remain unchanged. Maybe the iPhone 17 will have a higher refresh rate screen, and the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max will have slightly improved cameras – that’s always a safe bet. The biggest news will be the iPhone Plus replacement, the iPhone 17 Air.

At just under $1,000, the iPhone 17 Air will be the thinnest iPhone ever, but its technological compromises are enough to piss off a legion of tech fans. (It will still sell better than the iPhone Plus or Mini.)

Service is our business

Apple’s total profits from its services sometime in 2025 will exceed its product profits. While it’s unfair to say that Apple lost its soul at that moment—in fact, the majority of Apple’s services revenue is directly tied to its success in selling hardware—it’s worth thinking about how much the services budget line has become for Apple. important.

Of course, Apple will continue to invest in its services in 2025. But I think these investments are incremental in nature — a big movie here, a bunch of notable TV shows there, maybe some new fitness or news content. But while Apple is rumored to be in the running for most sports rights and even movie studios, ultimately I don’t think it’s going to buy something this big. (If Apple acquires Disney or Warner Bros. in 2025, we’ll all be laughing when we look back on this column.)

Speaking of services revenue, Apple’s two biggest revenue drivers in this category are browser referral funding from Google and revenue from the App Store. I think it’s safe to say that in 2025, the Google deal and Apple’s App Store policies will continue to come under attack from regulators.

Will Apple face record fines in 2025? I wouldn’t bet against it, but as I’ve warned you before, it’s probably not wise to bet on this stuff. Nothing is certain.