DRAM market prices will fall sharply in the first quarter of 2025, and the PC, server and GPU VRAM fields are expected to see sharp declines. according to TrendForce’s latest forecastSeasonal demand fluctuations coupled with strategic inventory management by buyers are driving the downward trend.
In the PC DRAM market, prices are expected to fall by 8-13%. This decline is mainly due to weak consumer demand and an oversupply of DDR4 memory modules. Chinese manufacturers have increased DDR4 production, further saturating the market and putting additional pressure on prices. While DDR5 adoption is growing steadily, it has not yet reached the scale needed to offset the oversupply of older-generation DDR4 modules. As a result, PC makers are taking advantage of lower prices to build inventory, albeit cautiously, to avoid overstocking amid uncertain demand.
Server DRAM prices are also expected to fall, but at a lower rate than PC DRAM, which is expected to fall by 5-10%. The ongoing transition from DDR4 to DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) continue to shape the server DRAM market. Major vendors are reallocating capacity from DDR4 to newer technologies to meet growing demand in data centers and artificial intelligence applications. However, an oversupply of DDR4 memory, coupled with cautious purchasing strategies by enterprise customers, has resulted in price restraint. Although DDR5 adoption continues to grow, current adoption is not enough to offset the oversupply of DDR4.
In the GPU VRAM segment, prices are expected to decline by 5-10%, mainly due to weak demand and rising inventory levels. Although there is a certain production capacity Move to HBMEspecially for high-performance GPUs used in artificial intelligence and data center applications, demand for traditional graphics DRAM remains weak. The gaming and professional graphics card markets have yet to fully recover from a period of high inventory levels and weak consumer demand, resulting in continued declines in GPU VRAM pricing.
The continued decline in DRAM prices is consistent with broader trends observed over the past two years. Previous reports indicate Prices drop sharply in early 2023DRAM costs plummeted by 20% in the first quarter alone. These reductions were driven by a combination of oversupply and weak consumer demand, which led to continued price declines throughout the year.
By 2024, although the rate of decline has slowed, the market still faces challenges. Manufacturers face high inventory levels and demand remains weak in key industries such as consumer electronics, gaming and data centers. In addition, the slow adoption of newer memory technologies such as DDR5 and HBM has led to a chronic surplus of older-generation DRAM modules, further destabilizing prices.
As 2025 begins, these challenges show no immediate signs of resolution. The interaction of buyers’ cautious purchasing strategies and the ongoing supply-demand imbalance is expected to maintain depressed DRAM market prices. The situation enables buyers to obtain lower-cost parts but continues to put pressure on suppliers in an increasingly competitive environment.