According to analysts Jon Peddie Researchdedicated GPU sales in the third quarter of 2024 fell 14.5% compared to the second quarter. The market decline breaks traditional market behavior of third-quarter sales growth, mainly as consumers wait for products from Nvidia and AMD next generation productsboth may be Announced January 2025.
Sales of discrete graphics cards, dubbed “AIBs” (add-on boards) in JPR’s release, were their worst since the second quarter of 2023, which came at the end of a year-long slump. AIB shipments in the third quarter of 2024 reached 8.1 million units, mainly due to 20.1 million desktop PC CPU shipments.
During the AIB downturn in Q3 2024, Nvidia has taken 2% market share from AMD since Q2, growing from 88%/12% to 90%/10% in three months (Intel is still at 0 %). This “slight shift” doesn’t affect the larger market dynamics, but is still a sign of Nvidia’s dominance in the field.
The attachment rates of desktop CPUs and discrete GPUs have also gradually declined year by year and quarter by quarter. Desktop CPU and GPU shipments were 20.1 million/8.1 million, a decrease from 19 million/9 million in the third quarter of 2023 and 14 million/10 million in the previous quarter, a change of -26.9% from the second quarter. Rising power in integrated graphics solutions and increasing prices for dedicated GPUs are likely to blame, as well as a general hesitancy to purchase last-generation graphics cards.
The most interesting part of JPR’s research is the forecast for standalone GPU sales prospects over the next few years. From 2024 to 2028, the compound annual growth rate of GPU add-on boards is expected to be -6.0%. This is largely due to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s promise to impose steep tariffs during his second term, namely Consumer laptop and electronics prices expected to rise 45%.
“We believe the tariffs and lack of corresponding wage growth over the next two years will push the U.S. economy into recession,” said Jon Peddie, director of the Jon Peddie Research Center. “Our long-term CAGR forecast is pessimistic… As consumers cut back on spending, other countries will feel the impact.”