Here’s what we know, and what we don’t, about the awful Palisades wildfire

Let’s start with meteorology. The Palisades wildfire and other nearby fires were well predicted days in advance. After a typically dry summer and fall, the Los Angeles area was still dealing with a dry winter. December, January, February and March usually wettest months in the region today. More than 80 percent of Los Angeles’ precipitation occurs during these cold months. But this year, the region averaged less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall in December. Normal totals in December are about 2.5 inches.

Thus, foliage in the area was already very dry, effectively extending the region’s wildfire season. Then strong Santa Ana winds were forecast this week, due in part to the bitter cold seen across the eastern United States and high pressure across the country’s Great Basin. Locally, “red flag” winds were forecast, indicating that the winds could combine with dry lands to effectively spread wildfires. The direct cause of the Palisades fire is not yet known.

Wildfires during the winter months in California are not common, but they are not unprecedented. Scientists, however, generally agree that a warmer planet is prolonging wildfire seasons like those seen in California.

“Climate change, including increasing heat, prolonged drought and a thirsty atmosphere, has been a key factor in increasing the risk and severity of wildfires in the western United States over the past two decades,” the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said. concludes. “Wildfires require the coordination of a number of factors, including temperature, humidity and lack of moisture in fuels such as trees, shrubs, grasses and forest debris. All these factors have a strong direct or indirect relationship with climate variability and climate change. change.”