Polymarket Is Taking Bets on the Palisades Wildfire

• Polymarket allows people to bet on a variety of things, such as election results and pop culture events.
• He also takes bets on the Palisades fire in California – at least nine different bets.
• Polymarket claims that the wisdom of crowds can provide “unbiased forecasts on the most important events affecting society.”

How The Palisades fire is still burning in parts of Los Angeles On Wednesday, Polymarket, a prediction market platform, lets people bet on specific elements of a disaster.

As of Wednesday afternoon, there were at least nine different predictions related to the fire. This theme on the site had its own trends module.

One question was asked: “Will the Palisades fire be contained by Friday?” Only 2% of bets answered yes. (California officials said Wednesday morning that California fires are ‘zero percent contained’. It is reported that two people died as a result of the disaster.)

Each bet has its own page on the website – and on the pages with bets related to the fire, there was a disclaimer from Polymarket.

The disclaimer reads:

A note about the Palisades Wildfire Markets: Prediction markets promise to harness the wisdom of crowds to create accurate and objective forecasts of the most important events affecting society. The devastating fire in Pacific Palisades is one such event where Polymarket can provide invaluable, real-time answers to those directly affected in a way that traditional media cannot.

Note. There are no commissions on this market.

On its website, Polymarket says users can submit market proposals, but a new forecast market like the ones about the fire can only be created by Polymarket.

A Polymarket spokesperson told Business Insider: “Polymarket does not charge fees or generate revenue from these markets and provides them as a service to those seeking unbiased, up-to-date information during rapidly changing events.”

Other rates available as of Wednesday:

• “Will the Palisade Fire burn 10,000 acres by Friday?” (Bettors said it was 99% yes.)
• “Will the Palisades Fire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday?” (Bettors gave this a 14% chance.)

The markets have only made small bets so far, with one issue raising just over $8,000 and another raising over $30,000, according to the site’s tallies.

Cryptocurrency betting polymarket has become popular during the 2024 elections. This showed that Donald Trump’s chances of winning were much higher than traditional polls had shown.

In addition to politics and sports, Polymarket offers bets on news and pop culture topics such as Oscar nominations or the likelihood of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey getting engaged this year.