TikTok Creators and Brands Are Bracing for a Potential Ban

The looming demise of TikTok, one of the most popular social media apps in the U.S., has marketers, agencies and creators scrambling to find alternatives — even if they’re not entirely sure TikTok will actually leave the United States this month. .

Marketers are shifting dollars to Instagram and making changes to their contracts with social media stars so they don’t have to pay for sponsored posts on TikTok when the app isn’t there. The creators are asking fans to follow them elsewhere while collecting their email addresses to connect on other platforms. And talent agents are advising TikTok stars to take a break from buying a house or car for now.

“I just hit 30 million followers, and in 10 days I could lose them all,” said Joe Chalk, a 26-year-old TikTok star from Long Island who started posting jokes when he was a college freshman. “It’s a little scary.”

TikTok, owned by Chinese company ByteDance, is trying to overturn the law. signed President Biden in April called on ByteDance to sell the app to a non-Chinese company or face a ban in the US on January 19. TikTok said the sale was impossible and challenged the law as unconstitutional. She will make her final legal argument in the case at the Supreme Court on Friday after losing her case in a lower court.

TikTok’s disappearance would upend the social media and marketing landscape, funneling billions of advertising dollars to rival platforms such as Meta’s Instagram and Google’s YouTube and dispersing 170 million monthly users in the United States. Known for its video channels that quickly adapt to users’ interests, TikTok has become cultural giant since 2020, resulting in best-selling books, viral recipes, Billboard 100 hits and even a Saturday Night Live cast member.

“This will either be the biggest non-headline event in marketing history or the biggest shock to the system in a decade,” said Craig Brommers, chief marketing officer at retailer American Eagle Outfitters.

Some marketing agencies and creators are taking bigger steps than others to prepare for a potential TikTok ban. Vicki Segar, founder of Village Marketing, an influencer marketing agency, said her firm’s clients moved some Instagram ad campaigns from TikTok this month to ensure their marketing didn’t disappear from view on Jan. 19.

Lisette Sand-Friedman, founder of the marketing and communications agency Shadow, recently began adding language to her contracts with creators that a “channel swap” could occur if TikTok were to disappear. So, if a brand’s deal with a creator included, say, three TikTok posts and the app went down in the United States, the brand would be able to switch to posting on Instagram or another platform of its choice, she said. Many creators publish short videos and other content across multiple platforms.

It’s a bad time to be “someone who’s phenomenal on TikTok but sucks on Instagram,” Ms. Sand-Friedman said. “I probably wouldn’t involve them in anything serious right now. There’s just no point in crossing your fingers and praying that their content will work somewhere else.”

However, many authors and marketers balance their very real fears with a sense of disbelief. Ms. Seegar said there had been talk of a potential TikTok ban since President-elect Donald Trump’s first term, which “took the wind out of the sails” of the new law.

“I think we all feel deep down that it’s not really going to happen,” she added.

TikTok and ByteDance are private and do not publicly disclose their financials. But Brian Wieser, an analyst and founder of the consulting firm Madison and Wall, estimates that TikTok generated $8 billion in U.S. ad sales last year, not counting e-commerce, tipping and other businesses.

Companies can pay TikTok to show video ads or send their posts to more viewers. They also often pay to promote the posts of authors they contract with to promote their products. TikTok also gets a cut of sales through its strong e-commerce business TikTok Shop, although that initiative has required the company to invest heavily over the past year and a half.

Agencies that manage creators, helping them secure lucrative brand sponsorships as well as book, TV and merchandise deals, have long advised their talent to diversify across social platforms. But the TikTok ban underscored the broader fragility of the social media business and, in particular, the creator economy, which Goldman Sachs forecasts will grow to $480 billion by 2027.

Palette Media, an agency that represents more than 230 social media stars, now has a staffer dedicated to “syndication” — essentially uploading TikTok creators’ content to other platforms, including Instagram Reels, YouTube and Snapchat, said Daniel Dux, its chief executive. . It started in earnest about nine months ago.

Mr. Dux said his firm was also advising creators to put the brakes on large financial purchases until TikTok’s legal battle subsides.

Madison Luscombe, chief marketing officer of Creator Society, another creator management company, said she has encouraged social media stars to collect the email addresses and phone numbers of their TikTok followers. Some of the firm’s founders build email lists on Substack, a newsletter platform, she said.

“Remember when MySpace became the next big thing?” American Eagle’s Mr. Brommers said. “Remember when Vine was very hot? Remember Clubhouse, remember BeReal? This potential ban is a reminder to me as a marketer that things come and go, even if it’s on a scale none of us have seen.”

Many marketers said creators, especially those who are more popular on TikTok than any other platform, would be the hardest hit by the app’s disappearance.

“The brands will be fine,” said Ms. Sand-Friedman of the Shadow agency. “It’s all these incredible nobodies who became somebody and started making real money and building their lives on it, they’re going to suffer.”

But not all creators are sounding the alarm.

Maridet and Austin Telenko, a married couple known for dancing on TikTok under the pseudonym Cost and mayorsaid they began posting on the platform during the pandemic, when their performances in the professional dance world stopped. They said their work in the entertainment industry had taught them to “know that everything you do is limited,” Ms. Telenko, 27, said.

“You could have talked to us the same way at the beginning of the pandemic when all our dance studios closed – you could have called us then and said, ‘Your business is closing – what are you going to do next?’ said Ms. Telenko, who has since worked with major brands such as Home Depot and sells the dance game at Walmart with her husband. “If TikTok disappears, we’ll find the next thing.”