- Canalys predicts PC shipments to slow in 2025 despite recent growth
- Trump’s proposed tariffs and Windows 11 upgrade costs are to blame
- Import tariffs could increase PC prices by as much as 46%
New Canalys study confirms recent healthy growth in U.S. personal computer Shipments in the third quarter of 2024 will increase by 7% year-on-year to 17.9 million units, but the near-term outlook is not so optimistic.
The company said the market recovery may slow in the coming months due to potential headwinds related to macroeconomic policy due to Trump’s upcoming inauguration as president.
Other factors, such as the Windows refresh cycle losing momentum despite the upcoming OS launch, Windows 10Losing support in October 2025 will also have an impact on the market.
U.S. PC market faces upcoming challenges
With quarterly growth continuing into the first quarter of 2025, Canalys predicts the market will shrink in the second quarter, with almost zero growth in the third and fourth quarters.
It is expected that the full-year growth in 2025 will be 2%, which will be significantly lower than the 6% expected in 2024.
Despite the slowdown in growth, the proportion of buyers remains fairly stable, with consumers accounting for approximately 37% of purchases and business customers accounting for 43-44% of the market. Government and education customers make up the remaining buyers.
Canalys analyst Greg Davis commented: “With the 2024 U.S. presidential election coming to a close, U.S. macroeconomic conditions are not expected to be as stable in the short term as they have been over the past year or two.”
The company’s press release cited recent research from the Consumer Technology Association, which suggests that proposed tariffs are likely to increase under Trump’s incoming administration. laptop and pill Prices increased by as much as 46%. smartphone Prices are also likely to rise by 26% after proposed tariffs of 10-20% on imports from most countries and 60% on imports from China.
The troubled market and rising costs mark a significant change in Canalys’ expectations since September 2024, when the company announced that U.S. PC shipments could grow 6% in 2024 and 2025.